2 The overt use of recent violence by state-backed proxies in Syria and Ukraine is driven by such “hybrid threats.” For America’s adversaries, Cold War-era concepts became embedded in Russia’s contemporary Gerasimov Doctrine and China’s concept of unrestricted warfare.
Thus, the concept of hybrid warfare largely emerged from American military-strategic studies, influenced by the realization that since 9/11 and following the 2006 Israel–Hezbollah War conflicts in which the United States and its allies are involved have become increasingly complex with regard to the number and kind of belligerents and the tools available to them. 1 This meant more special forces on the ground and fewer diplomats. Bush after 11 September 2001, when the president declared a “war on terror.” US strategy moved from containing threats to US security to engaging them abroad preemptively. The shift to kinetic diplomacy occurred during the presidency of George W. The Theoretical Underpinnings of Gray-zone Conflict
RETROSPECT SEBASTOPOL UPGRADE
Finally, it will be necessary to reform and upgrade contemporary international institutions to address gray-zone conflict.
RETROSPECT SEBASTOPOL UPDATE
It is also essential to update international laws of war to account for low-intensity armed and unarmed hybrid tactics. We argue that it is important to disentangle and individually address the challenges posed by gray-zone conflict in all three security, economic, and sociopolitical domains. Building on these insights, we identify several key steps for conflict resolution in Eastern Ukraine. In the concluding part, we consider implications for conflict management and directions for future research. In the second section, we outline evidence from the ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine with respect to how gray-zone conflict impacts both state behavior and conflict management strategies. In the first part, we examine the concept of gray-zone conflict and how it relates to hybrid warfare and conventional interpretations and theories of conflict and war. In this article, we examine the involvement of state and nonstate actors in gray-zone conflict and their relationship to hybrid warfare and the implications for conflict management. Another 5 miles and we were back in Sebastopol, where Hopmonk appeared like a mirage.Journal of European, Middle Eastern, & African Affairs. Happily, it went west, dumping us onto Guerneville Road. At one point we found ourselves on the Santa Rosa Creek Trail and, being guys, didn’t bother to stop and figure out where it was taking us. From Sebastopol the view changes from open spaces with lots of oaks and plum to subdivisions and light industrial warehouses, with fences and underpasses and busy intersections and traffic. We had our heads down so no one really noticed. Once we were back in town the guys peeled off to ride the Joe Rodota Trail to Santa Rosa. I had the pulled pork.) A glass or two of Merry Edwards and the girls screwed on their courage for the ride back. ( Twist in Forestville, by the way, is excellent. This and other harrowing tales of adolescent bike calamities were all we talked about at lunch. Which naturally freaked out the other girls. Magoo, oblivious to stop signs and busy intersections, emerging on the other side unscathed and just as unaware as she was when she entered. You know the type: handbag draped over the handlebars, yakking on her mobile phone, scarf blowing in the wind. Here’s where it got interesting.Ĭyndi, chic though she may be, is the kind of urban cyclist who blithely pedals through town expecting the rest of the world to yield to her. At Mile 2, we turned left onto Occidental Road. After zigging and zagging for a mile, it runs alongside the Gravenstein Highway, where it passes through vineyards and farmlands.
We picked up the trail near the local high school. The path is flat, paved and mellow - perfect for weekend warriors. The trail being West County Trail, which runs between Sebastopol, about 10 minutes from Spirit Hill Farm, to Forestville, 5-1/2 miles north. Getting everyone else outfitted was like herding cats but finally we hit the trail. David, a “roadie,” had brought his own, as did Jon, a triathlete, and me, a mountain biker. Nothing epic, just a 3-hour cruise, a social ride.įive of us needed to rent bikes. The plan was to rent some bikes, pedal through the countryside, enjoy a leisurely lunch, and pedal home. That was how we found ourselves at West County Cycle Service on this fine Saturday morning - Lorna & David, Cyndi & Lars, Carol & Jon, and Melanie & me. And no, Cards Against Humanity doesn’t count. Apparently it wasn’t enough to eat and drink and lay about as a group.
I’m not sure whose idea it was but the decision to plan a group activity that all eight of us could do together was, in retrospect, a dumb one.
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